American Elections Evaluated at BAU

At an evaluation meeting open to the press, with members of the BAU Center for American Studies Advisory Board and faculty members of the BAU Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences as speakers, the results of the 2012 US Presidential Election and the future of Turkish-American relations were discussed. Highlights of the meeting, attended by leading names in their fields such as Prof. Dr. Yılmaz Esmer, Prof. Dr. Sabri Sayarı, Milliyet newspaper foreign policy columnist Sami Kohen, Prof. Dr. Necip Çakır, Prof. Dr. İlkay Sunar, Assist. Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay, Assist. Prof. Dr. Nora Fisher Onar, Retired Ambassador Uluç Özülker, Dr. Sean Cox, Prof. Dr. Erhun Kula and Ekim Alptekin, are as follows:

 

Why Obama? The Changing Demographic Structure of the USA and Voter Behavior

 

• The Parties' Election Strategies:

 

One of the important characteristics of the US electoral system is that turnout does not exceed around 60%. While about 35% of voters are known to be Democrats and 35-36% Republicans (core votes), we can say that the remaining 29-30% of voters are "undecided voters". As of 5 months before election day, it is possible to determine through opinion polls which party (Democrat or Republican) voters in which states tend to vote for. Thus, the "swing states", where undecided voters are in the majority, or the purple states, a mix of blue and red, emerge as the states that determine the fate of US Presidential Elections. In the 2012 Presidential Elections, these states were notably Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. Therefore, the presidential candidates of the two parties concentrated their meetings and rallies in these few states in the final weeks of the election campaign.

 

• The Changing Demographic Profile of US Voters

 

The 2012 Presidential Election was of particular importance in showing the demographic change observed among US voters in recent years. In particular, immigrants of Hispanic origin, whose population in the USA is steadily increasing, played an important role in Obama's victory by voting for him in very large numbers. Other groups that we can define as "the excluded" in society (Black people, women, gay people, etc.) also supported Obama and enabled him to emerge successfully from the elections. Looking at the age profile of voters, there is a marked difference between the two parties: Obama received the votes of most voters aged 18-29, while his rival Romney was more popular among voters aged 65 and over.

 

At the meeting, two different views emerged on how this demographic change could affect US politics in the coming years. According to one view, the increasingly marked demographic divergence between the voters of the two parties could lead to growing polarization in US society in the future and could reach a point that threatens social unity. According to another view, the new social coalition created by Obama will enable the excluded to be integrated into the system and eliminate polarization in society.

 

• Other Reasons for Obama's Success

 

It can be said that the Republican Party's failure to field a strong candidate also contributed to Obama's success. Had the Republicans fielded a stronger candidate, they might have achieved a better result in the elections. In past elections as well, whether candidates were strong or not affected the results. For example, Ronald Reagan's electoral victories against Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984 owed much to his being much stronger than his rivals. It was noted that another important factor here is organizational structure, and it was concluded that Obama and the Democratic Party have a much stronger organizational structure.

 

Obama's Second-Term Foreign Policy: On the Israel, Syria and Iran Axis

Türkiye-US Relations

 

The most obvious difference between Obama's foreign policy and the foreign policy envisaged by Romney is, just as in domestic policy, the effort to integrate groups excluded from the global system through dialogue and compromise. This approach of Obama's is expected to be an important step for world stability.

 

Regarding the effects of Obama's new-term foreign policy on Türkiye, it can be said that there will be no expectations very different from the past 4 years. With the USA's new-term foreign policy, an operation in Syria carried out by the USA itself is foreseen as very unlikely. In this case, while Türkiye's insistence on its up-and-down relations with Syria and the policies it pursues could cause tension in relations, Türkiye may feel the need to reposition its Syria policy in the face of the USA's policy of not getting involved in Syria.

 

Paradoxically, it is clear that a stronger Obama will lead Türkiye to approach the Middle East more cautiously and to act more carefully on the Syrian question.

 

• Evaluation of Obama's Economic Policies and the Global Financial Crisis

 

There is no doubt that the economy was the most important factor in the elections. It was concluded that, while Obama and his government were not responsible for the economic crisis that began in the USA and was also felt in Europe, Obama practically inherited a wreck and relatively repaired it within 4 years. For example, while the current economic growth rate of the USA is put at 2%, the recession continues in Europe; this success of the USA drew public attention, and this positive public perception was reflected in the election results in Obama's favor. Obama has signaled that his economic policies in the coming term will focus on low-income groups. Obama's election victory was seen as a signal of a return to the "American Dream" (Social Democracy), in reference to how, after the 1929 Great Depression in America, the gap in income distribution between upper and lower income groups narrowed thanks to Roosevelt's New Deal, which came to be described as the American Dream.

 

The Armenian Issue: 2015, the 100th Anniversary of the So-Called Armenian Genocide

 

It can be expected that the events to be organized by the Armenian diaspora in the USA in 2015 may lead to a crisis in Turkish-American relations. In particular, the "Armenian Genocide Museum" to be opened in the museum district of Washington, D.C. (The Mall) will be visited by thousands of American families and will enable Armenian theses to be strongly reflected in American society. It was emphasized that two-thirds of the states in America have passed bills in their own legislatures recognizing the genocide and that it is now very difficult to change the perception that is growing ever stronger in American public opinion; while it was foreseen that producing effective new policies on this issue is essential, it was pointed out that by 2015, whoever the US president is, the Turkish government will face serious difficulties.