China and Türkiye's Middle East Paradigm Discussed at the Diplomat School

The Diplomat School once again hosted distinguished speakers in its 3rd week. Participants in the program, Retired Ambassador Nüzhet KANDEMİR, Retired Ambassador and TASAM Vice President Murat BİLHAN and Director of the Marmara University Institute of Middle Eastern Studies and SETA Foundation Foreign Policy Director Prof. Dr. Talip KÜÇÜKCAN shared their comments and views with the participants. The program addressed the topics "The Traditional Character of Foreign Policy and the Language of Diplomacy", "Turkish Foreign Policy on the Iran-Iraq-Syria Axis", "Rising Power China's 18th Congress and Türkiye-China Relations", "Transformations in Russian Foreign Policy and Türkiye-Russia Relations", "Türkiye's New Middle East Paradigm and Visionary Leadership" and "The European Union's View of Turkish Foreign Policy".

Nüzhet Kandemirset out his views on diplomacy and foreign policy as follows: "The first task of diplomacy is to prepare compromise formulas while balancing our own country's interests. Ensuring that these formulas are accepted by other countries and securing peace are the main tasks of diplomacy. Diplomacy's most important weapon is language and the totality of words. Long-lasting solution formulas take into account not the short-term expectations of the public but its long-term and important interests."

Referring to Turkish foreign policy on the Iran-Iraq-Syria axis in his speech, Kandemir commented on Türkiye-Iran relations as follows: "We can define Türkiye-Iran relations as not interfering in each other's affairs and not severing historical and cultural ties. As for Türkiye-Iraq relations, it has been declared that we will uphold Iraq's indivisible territorial integrity. Iraq knows that Türkiye stands by al-Hashimi. Naturally, this did not suit Maliki, and the foreign minister announced that he had the right to have him arrested. We cannot say that security forces are everywhere in Iraq today." On Türkiye-Syria relations, the retired ambassador made the following assessments: "Our Syria relations were wrong. If we think rationally about the establishment of a buffer zone and the fact that Syria possesses nuclear weapons near the border, the USA's desire to strike at Israel by toppling Assad in Syria carries some truth. Türkiye should not come forward as a playmaker on Syria."

Murat Bilhanset out his views on rising power China as follows: "China is a powerful country with the world's strongest economy and army. The balance of power is now changing. The balances in the Middle East are becoming small. The Far East is becoming a great power. Countries in the Asia-Pacific threaten the USA. America has spent a lot of money and therefore does not want to put itself at much risk. It protects its own interests through other countries. My observations from China's 18th Congress are as follows: China has the virtue of seeing its own problems, and they do not hide them; on the contrary, they are searching for ways to solve these problems. For example, they are aware that the one-child policy was wrong, because this policy has disrupted the population balance. Because of the one-child policy, when the mother or father dies, the child is left alone. The concept of relatives disappears and the family unit collapses. There is an income gap. China is the world's 2nd richest country, but because the population is large, per capita income is low. There are no social security systems. China also has energy problems. It has energy dependency, and this will always be the case."

Also touching on Türkiye-China relations, Bilhan continued: "Important steps have been taken in our Türkiye-China relations. Our Prime Minister visited China and a Nuclear Cooperation Agreement was signed. There is a trade imbalance between us and China. We buy goods from China but do not sell any goods there. Türkiye is not acting with hostility in the Xinjiang issue."

Bilhan continued his speech with Russia-Türkiye relations: "Türkiye cannot confront Russia; it does not have such power. Russian territory is very rich in natural resources. If Russia cuts off natural gas, Türkiye does not have the time or means to solve this in a short time. Not all our interests coincide with Russia's, but efforts are being made. In terms of technology, Russians see Türkiye as a market. Russia's Middle East problem: Russia lost its dominant role in the Cold War years, but it is trying to emphasize that it is once again a dominant power. There is no power that can stand up to Russia, because America is not pursuing a war strategy. The EU is not a power against Russia."

Talip Küçükcan In his speech on the Middle East, he touched on the following points. Küçükcan stated that North Africa is also part of the Middle East and, starting a little from the past, said that the Cold War period had a serious impact on foreign policy. He stated that the elements guiding international politics were security and ideology. In past periods, establishing relations with Arabs did not seem very meaningful for Türkiye; indeed, until 5-6 years ago, diplomas from Arab universities were considered valid at schools such as Oxford and Harvard but were not recognized in Türkiye. Even this example shows how distant we were from the Arab World and how this affected Türkiye's view of the Arab World. The end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of the bipolar world reduced security concerns and shaped this relationship. The topic of Küçükcan's next session was "The EU's View of Turkish Foreign Policy". Küçükcan continued: he stated that it was said that Türkiye had insufficient democracy that needed improvement, and that harmonization packages were introduced and implemented on paper. "Türkiye is a poor country with inflation exceeding 100%, so there could be a wave of migration and we cannot cope with it. After that, improvement was seen; Türkiye even entered the G8, per capita national income increased, and it became the fastest-growing economy after China." "After that, a culturalist discourse emerged after 2005. France and Germany pointed to cultural differences as the reason for this discourse, saying, 'Türkiye belongs to a different culture and civilization and is not compatible with the EU.' They also said that the Cyprus issue had a negative effect on Türkiye. Recently, however, we see the EU displaying a more objective attitude rather than an ideological and cultural approach. With the AK Party period, developments were seen in positive relations with the East. This raised the question: Has Türkiye begun to break away from the West and move toward the East (axis shift)?" He discussed the debates on whether it is developing its relations on the basis of rational decisions or ideological ones. According to Küçükcan: "Türkiye should be a country that can trade with its next-door neighbors. Why should Türkiye not establish relations with countries with which it shares the same history and geography? If foreign policy has economic and political returns, this is a rational decision. An Islamist policy does not affect its foreign policy," he said, expressing his view.