Foreign Relations Discussed at the Diplomat School

 

Distinguished speakers once again took part in the 6th and final week of the Diplomat School. Participants in the program, Antalya Member of Parliament and former President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Deputy Director General for Policy Planning at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Türkiye Zeki Levent Gümrükçü, Consul General of the French Republic in Istanbul Hervé François Magro, and faculty member of Political Science and International Relations at Yeditepe University Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın shared their comments and views. The program addressed the topics "Türkiye's Relations with International Organizations", "Turkish Foreign Policy in Light of Current Developments", "Türkiye-France Relations", "Turkish-Russian Relations" and "The Syrian Crisis in the Middle East and the No-Fly Zone".

Highlights from the speakers are as follows:

Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu

"How should the foreign policy of a country with an important geopolitical position, such as Türkiye, be, and what should determine this foreign policy? A country's foreign policy is determined first of all by its geography and neighbors, and secondly by its economic power, its social structure and the extent to which it has caught up with world norms and values. In a shrinking world, the area of interest should not be only neighbors. The basic philosophy of Turkish foreign policy is Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's words, "Peace at home, peace in the world". Today, steps supporting this must be taken. The visions are "Solve problems, don't create them" and "Win friends, not enemies". Although Türkiye's "zero problems" policy is difficult to implement, it is the right policy. Today, because of the stance Türkiye has shown in foreign policy, people question where it is heading and whether it has abandoned the goal of the European Union. But the EU is not our only goal. What will happen if we cannot join the EU today? We will have to pursue a policy on our own. In addition, we can be allies with the United States, but it may not always be possible to meet on common ground. For example, the USA was among the first countries to intervene in our relations with Syria. Therefore, while conducting our relations with the USA, we must also keep our relations with Russia good. Moreover, relations established only with the Islamic world will not be sufficient. In summary, Türkiye needs to pursue a multidimensional policy. It does not have the luxury of choosing any one of these countries. For example, Africa, Latin America and the Far East are regions with good trade relations with Türkiye; had this not been the case, we too could have suffered greatly during the crisis. Turkish foreign policy needs to pursue an active rather than a passive diplomacy. Thanks to the lifting of visas in many countries, Turkish businesspeople first, then Turkish Airlines and then us as a country going there and engaging in commercial activities have played a major role in the development of our foreign policy; for this reason, foreign policy cannot be conducted only through state channels. Looking at Mr. Sezer's term, we can say that Turkish foreign policy was not active. The Gül period, however, is quite the opposite. In this period, we saw that when we communicate, even people and countries hostile to Türkiye begin to adopt at least a neutral approach. I have observed people said to be against Türkiye. What I saw is that these people are sensitive about democracy, and Türkiye is not good in this respect. But the same person also criticizes their own country; there is no hostility toward Türkiye. The most important role in making Türkiye active in foreign policy belongs to non-governmental organizations. For example, the work of NGOs on violence against women is changing Türkiye's international image. Therefore, foreign policy must be viewed as a whole.

Although joining the EU is one of our biggest goals, it is not our only aim. Türkiye is a member of many organizations in order to be able to act as a mediator. However, we need to be part of the decision-making mechanism in the organizations of which we are members. Otherwise, this situation may not coincide with your interests. Today, the Balkans and Africa have very high expectations of Türkiye. To meet them, you must be active in the international arena. Türkiye is trying to do this. Today, after the EU, the most important organization is the United Nations. Türkiye does what the UN expects of it; but at the same time, it thinks that the structure of the UN needs to be changed and cooperates with countries that share the same view. The Council of Europe is Europe's most important organization. Its importance is increasing today, so Türkiye needs to take an active role in this organization. Our relations with NATO have also improved; whereas we used to send only soldiers, we now also take part in the decision-making mechanism. Türkiye is also a member of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. In addition, there are formations of which it is not a member but a strategic partner: the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Arab League. Finally, Türkiye is a member of many organizations in Europe and also plays an active role in them. However, there are many organizations in which we will and should be more active."

 

Zeki Levent Gümrükçü

"The change that began after the Cold War continues; rising powers, both economic and political, have emerged over the last two or three years. In recent years, the rise of Asia and Africa has been directing America's economic and security focus toward these regions. Africa is one of the fastest-growing regions until 2050. Multinational companies and non-governmental organizations are also important factors influencing foreign policy. In the historical transformation that began in the Mediterranean region, Türkiye is in a position both to influence and to be influenced. In terms of its permanence, it is more accurate to say "Arab Awakening" rather than "Arab Spring". I think that such a great popular revolution was not expected by anyone and that it would be futile to stand against such a popular movement and desire for democracy. Stability in the region will come with the democratic consent of the peoples. As for Syria, Syria is very different from Egypt and Libya, it contains many different ethnic groups, and if steps are not taken carefully, it could harm its surroundings. Once a reform begins, it is important to provide all kinds of economic and social support as well as political support. As for Türkiye's Zero Problems Policy, at this point relations with Syria have been severed and there is no longer any connection with the Assad regime. The reason for this is that Assad himself has changed. Türkiye and Iran view Syria differently, and the two countries are two important actors in the region, so it is important to keep relations good; they are two countries with increasing economic and political interdependence. There are always questions such as whether Türkiye needs the EU or the EU needs Türkiye, but the question to ask here should be what the EU and Türkiye can do together, because the EU and Türkiye can live without each other, but Türkiye's EU membership would make a very large economic contribution to the EU.

Herve François Magro

"Economics and politics are inseparable. Economic and cultural presence should be examined in Istanbul. The same diplomacy has existed since Suleiman the Magnificent. Attention should be paid to what is said in diplomatic language, but it would be very difficult to say that we have not experienced any crises so far. Those who want to become diplomats must know geography very well. The relations that come from being two states at opposite ends of the Mediterranean are very normal. We are aware of the economic importance of our relations with Türkiye. Galatasaray High School and the French high schools mean that we raise Francophone generations. Our problem as diplomats is how we should transfer our capital to these relations and to future generations. Our former President Sarkozy was a very clear opponent of Türkiye. The position of our new president is not similar. I am hopeful that the negotiations will start again and in a new way. Europeans cannot see where the union is going. We admitted countries that were not ready to join the European Union; perhaps this shows that we developed the EU too quickly. Britain cannot play the role that France and Germany play. It acts as an observer and to protect its own interests. In France, many people think that Türkiye will side with Germany. I, however, think that Türkiye will make a rational decision in its own interest. Türkiye is economically much stronger than before; the struggle will now be at a different level and regional. If we cannot stand together, we cannot succeed. Young people think that Europe is not interested in Türkiye. You should also think about the EU's problem of opening itself to the outside. It is very difficult to understand the essence of the Armenian genocide issue. Unfortunately, our bilateral relations are developing around this issue and these developments. I lived in Ankara in my youth, and when I returned to France, the Türkiye described to me was different from the Türkiye I had lived in. As diplomats, we will need to manage this situation with the Armenian diaspora in 2015. There is an Armenian population of 500,000 in France; their origin and home was Anatolia, and their end was 1915. Türkiye today is not the Türkiye of the 80s and 90s. When Greece joined the UN in 1994, you could have put forward your candidacy, but you did not. The Turkish people must say what they want. The economic crisis will surely end. The European Union is not the economy. We greatly need leaders, especially in terms of values, and in this respect Türkiye's values are very important. As the number of EU members increases, it becomes more difficult to be a common center of power. Since I took up this post 3 years ago, I have seen dynamism and changes in youth in Türkiye. The way people express themselves is changing. Türkiye's opening to the Middle East is natural, because it is its natural environment. It is like our interest in Italy and Portugal. We should see Türkiye as a partner, not a rival. As Europeans, we like to say that we have partners, but we do not like to build partnerships. We should not see this as a loss of leadership.

Prof. Dr. Mesut Hakkı Caşın

"In 2025, Türkiye will surpass Russia in population. In 2025, a Russian university will open in Türkiye and a Turkish university in Russia. We see that the two states complement each other geopolitically in the region. Russians have a diaspora of 25 million worldwide. The initial rivalry in our relations with Russia has given way to cooperation. We have 35 billion dollars of trade with Russia. 3.5 million Russian tourists come to Türkiye every year. It is clear that we are at odds with Russia on Syria. With the cooperation with Russia on nuclear energy, Türkiye will have nuclear cooperation for the first time. A protocol on the financing of terrorism was recently signed with Russia. Within the framework of our defense cooperation with Russia, Russia is giving us S-300s. With the Geneva action plan, we see that the two countries stand on a common point regarding Assad's departure in Syria. The questions of where Assad could go and what will happen after Assad remain unanswered. When we consider Russia's UN veto, the Prime Minister's words "The key is in Russia's hands" gain meaning. Lavrov's statement "Assad is not indispensable" and Putin's statement "We are not his (Assad's) lawyer" are also particularly important at this point. All the weapons in Syria's hands are Russian-made. The issue comes down to how a solution without Assad will be achieved. Russia's main concern is not to lose the port of Tartus in Syria.

"The two major equations of the last century were the expulsion of the Ottomans from the Middle East region and the removal of oil from Ottoman protection. This was also called the 'great game'. Recently, Russia has declared Ukraine and Georgia as its red line, and it demonstrated this in the 2008 Georgian war. In the Iran-Iraq war, America backed Iraq. In the Gulf War, they promised Türkiye 250 brand-new aircraft to enter the war, but Türkiye did not accept. The influence of external dynamics on the Arab Spring is an important subject of debate. I think the Arab Spring is a revolution. Perhaps not like the French Revolution or the 1848 revolutions in Europe, but we can describe it as a revolution. In the 1990s, the people of the region saw that dictators who no longer had legitimacy could not stand. Libya was for a long time a state used by Russia that financed terrorist acts. Libya was also the perpetrator of the Lockerbie scandal. When the turmoil began there, China withdrew 50,000 of its citizens from Libya, while we evacuated 30 of our citizens from Libya. China has recently been seeking ways to open up to the Mediterranean, thereby challenging America. There is a struggle between China, Russia and America in the Eurasian region. In the turmoil in the Middle East, there is a question in people's minds as to whether the main target is Syria or Iran. Ankara's main concern in Syria is the possibility of sectarian conflict. The policy of zero problems with neighbors is an ideal. Whether it is really possible is a separate question. This policy is actually Mustafa Kemal Atatürk's policy. Turkish foreign policy has continuity. Türkiye is right about shooting down the Syrian aircraft. Under international law, Türkiye has such a right. NATO's provision of Patriot missiles came about through Türkiye's pressure. Türkiye does not actually need them. The issue is the defense of a NATO country. During the 1991 Gulf War, we gave the Peshmerga supplies that we did not give to the Turkish Armed Forces. We fed 550,000 refugees at that time. What matters is humanity. It is standing by the oppressed. This exists in the Turkish state tradition. In our history, we have never used chemical weapons on people. Russia does not look favorably on a NATO-led intervention in Syria. Syria does not have nuclear weapons, but it does have serious chemical weapons. Türkiye's greatest wish is for the bloodshed in Syria to stop."