BETAM Optimistic About the Economy

The Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (BETAM)has published its note "The 2nd Quarter Began with Hope," part ofEconomic Outlook and Forecasts: June 2012, prepared by Dr. Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Research Assistant Barış Soybilgen.

Accordingly, in April the Industrial Production Index (IPI) rose by 1.0 percent compared to March, and the export volume index rose by 7.6 percent. The import volume index fell by 2.6 percent. Early indicators show that economic growth continued in the 2nd quarter. Volatility in exports and imports is high, but the trend points to positive net exports... The BETAM team forecasts that GDP will grow by 1.0 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2012 compared to the first quarter of the year. Based on this forecast, they calculate the year-on-year growth rate in the 2nd quarter as 3.3 percent.

There is no revision to BETAM's 1st quarter forecasts either. In April, the decline in the foreign trade deficit and the current account deficit continued. Thanks to the strong increase in exports, the foreign trade deficit in April fell by $2.5 billion compared to the same month last year to $6.6 billion. The current account deficit followed suit, falling to $5 billion. According to BETAM, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP will fall from 9.3 to 8.3 as of the end of the 2nd quarter.

Click here for the Economic Outlook and Forecasts: June 2012 Note