In the public discussion which hosted BAU American Researches Center Advisory Committee, the results of American Elections and future Turkish-American relations were discussed. The highlights of the meeting to which leading idols in their fields such as Prof. Dr. Yılmaz Esmer, Prof. Dr. Sabri Sayari, Sami Kohen, Milliyet Newspaper’s Foreign Policy Columnisti Prof. Dr. Necip Çakır, Prof. Dr. İlkay Sunar, Ass. Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay, Ass. Prof. Dr. Nora Fisher Onar, Retired Ambassador Uluç Özülker, Dr. Sean Cox, Prof. Dr. Erhan Kula, Ekim Alptekin attended are as follows;
Why Obama? The Changing Demographic Structure and Voter Attitude of United States
• Election Strategies For Parties:
One of the important characteristic of USA election system is that the voting rate does not exceed 60 % 60. 35 % of the voters are Democrats and 35-36 % of the voters are Republican where 29-30 % of the rest is “indecisive voters”. This enables us to detect which state is inclined to vote which party (Democrat or Republican 5 months before the elections. This way the swing states where indecisive voters are high in number or the purple states, the mixture of red and blue stand out as the states which will determine the results of U.S.A. Presidential Election.
• The Changing Demographic Structure of U.S.A. Voters
2012 Presidential Elections has a specific significance which proves the recent demographic changes in U.S.A. voters. Especially a great percentage of Hispanic immigrants voted for Obama and enabled him win the election. Other groups which are deemed as outsiders such as blacks, women, homosexuals etc.) also supported Obama’s success in the elections. When the age profile of the voters are examined a significant difference stand out; Obama won most of the votes of voters between 18-29 age where his rival Romney was more popular among voters over 65 years old.
Two separate opinions emerged in the meeting about how his demographic change affect the future of U.S.A. policy. One opinion says that the increasing demographic difference between the voters of the two party may lead an increasing polarization and threaten the union of the society. The other opinion states that this new social coalition created by Obama shall enable the outcast to get integrated in the society and remove the polarizations in the public.
• Other Reasons of Obama’s Success
It can be said that Republican Party failed to nominee a strong candidate. If republicans had nominee a strong candidate maybe they would have got a better result in the election. In the previous elections the strength of the candidates had also affected the results of the elections directly. For instance, in 1980 and 1983 Ronald Reagan and in won against Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale respectively thanks to his personal superiorities. Another reason of victory was the success in organizing, it was decided that Obama and democrats had a better organization structure.
Obama’s 2nd Term Foreign Policy: Turkey-U.S.A. relations in the framework of Israil, Syria and Iran
The most significant difference of Obama’s foreign policy from Romney’s is that he wants to integrate the groups outcast from global system via building a dialog and consensus, which is similar to his domestic policy. This approach of Obama is expected to be an important step in terms of world stability.
As for Obama’s new term foreign period with regard to Turkey, we can say that it will not be so different from the previous 4 years. It is considered to be a long shot that U.S.A. shall engage in a battle in Syria. Considering such data we can say that Turkey’s wavy relationship with Syria and Turkey’s insistence in its policy may cause a tension between the two countries. Turkey may need to relocate its policy with Syria when considering the policy of U.S.A’s which includes not dealing with Syria.
As a paradox Obama’s being stronger will lead Turkey approach the Middle East more cautiously and Turkey will also act more carefully when dealing with Syria problem.
• Obama’s Economy Policies and the Evaluation of World Financial Crisis
It is doubtless that economy it the most important factor in elections. Obama and his government is not to blame for the economic crises outbreak in U.S.A which also affected Europe, it is determined that Obama inherited a wreck and relatively improved it in four years. For instane the growth rate of U.S.A. is 2 % today whereas in Europe the recession continues, the people of U.S.A. is aware of this fact, which also played an important role in Obama’s success in election. Obama emphasized that he shall focus on those with low income in the following term. Obama’s victory was deemed as a signal of return to the American Dream (Social Democracy) just like Roosevelt’s handling and diminishing the social gap which arouse after the great economic depression in 1929 with his New Deal plan.
Armenian Problem: 2015, The 100th Anniversary Of So-Called Armanian Genocide
The activities to be held by Armenian Diaspora in U.S.A. in 2015 is expected to cause a crises in Turkish-Armenian relationships. Especially “Armenian Genocide Museum” to be opened in the museums area (The Malll) in Washington D.C. shall be visited by thousands of American family, which will reflect and impose Armenians’ thesis on American society. Two third of the state parliaments in America passed the proposals accepting the genocide and it is too hard to erase this perception in America and new policies must be produced with regard to this issue. It is also stated that no matter who rules America in 2015 Turkish government will have serious problems.
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